伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-02 02:48
伊森·莫利克
@emollick · Ethan Mollick · 0 followers
获得了 Claude Fable 5.1 的早期体验权限。它在需要判断力和品味的长期工作中取得了实质性进步，但在 Claude 风格特征方面的提升较少。
50今日信号
🔥 Claude Fable 5.1 发布
1 条最高 8.0
🔥 Opus 5.5 发布
1 条最高 7.6
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-23 00:55
在我的早期测试中，Opus 5.5 表现良好，是首个达到 Fable 级别体验的非 Fable/Astra 模型，但仍未完全解决密集语……
事实Opus 5.5 体验逼近顶尖梯队，但在高密度复杂语境下仍未完全突破。
观点
对你意味着顶尖模型差距正在收敛，但复杂场景下单靠升级模型不够，仍需构建应用层 Context 与工作流兜底。
Opus 5.5 was a good model in my early tests, first non-Fable/Astra model to feel like a Fable-class model, but still hasn't fully solved the dense lan...
🔥 Gemini 3.8 Flash 发布
1 条最高 7.6
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-03 01:31
获得了 Gemini 3.8 Flash 的早期体验资格，它是一款非常优秀的 Flash 模型，但仍无法等同于前沿模型。以下是 Gemini 3.8 Flash 的版本...
事实Google 正在测试 Gemini 3.8 Flash，实测属顶级轻量模型但不及旗舰级。
观点CEO 在产品架构中应推行分级路由，用 Flash 模型覆盖高频日常任务以大幅降本，复杂推理场景保留前沿旗舰模型。
Had early access to Gemini 3.8 Flash, it is a very good Flash model, but not equivalent to a frontier model, though. Here is Gemini 3.8 Flash's versio...
🔥 Claude Projects 发布
1 条最高 7.4
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-18 02:21
我获得了新版 Claude Projects 的访问权限，并能够用它完成一些非常复杂的工作。在这里，我让它梳理了所有的图像、视频和记录……
事实Claude 正在将长上下文产品化为支持多模态记录的持久化项目区。
观点
对你意味着单一对话框已被工作区形态取代。若产品仅做浅层问答封装，极易被底层模型挤压，必须深入垂直业务数据流。
I had access to the new Claude Projects and was able to do some very complex work. Here, I asked it to go through all the images, videos and records a...
🔥 Hugging Face 风波
1 条最高 7.4
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-01 04:54
在很多方面，Hugging Face 事件在很大程度上源于模型自主识别出一系列针对自身的通用越狱（Jailbreak）提示词注入攻击，以至于……
事实Hugging Face 事件显示高级模型已能自主发现针对自身的越狱注入攻击。
观点
对你意味着，在构建基于 LLM 的企业级 Agent 时，传统的静态防护提示词防线正迅速失效。CEO 需将安全治理从单点规则过滤升级为动态、持续监控的自治对抗防御体系。
In a lot of ways, the Hugging Face Incident came from the models identifying a series of universal jailbreak prompt injections for themselves, such th...
🔥 eco-library 发布
1 条最高 6.2
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-18 06:58
转发：该项目现已开源：https://github.com/emollick/eco-library 。AI 自行检索了全部参考文献，请注意高亮标注的部分。
事实一线学者已开源由 AI 自主检索文献构建的资料库；
观点这
对你意味着垂直领域的信息检索与内容编排门槛已被拉平。单纯的信息聚合已无壁垒，你的产品必须向私有数据与深度业务工作流推进。
Re This is now open source: https://github.com/emollick/eco-library The AI found all the references itself. Note the highlighted part.
📘 AI 产品化
13 条最高 6.6
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-01 02:29
AI 写作的第一个黄金时代现在已经结束了。在短暂的一段时间里，许多人让 Claude 来承接他们的大量写作任务能获得更好的效果，因为...
对你意味着
事实通用大模型直接生成长文本的边际价值正在下降。
观点单纯依靠 LLM 包壳的“代写”产品护城河已基本失效。CEO 在规划内容与写作类 AI 产品时，需从“全自动生成”转向“深度工作流交互”，提供通用模型无法直接输出的结构化业务价值。
The First Golden Age of AI writing is now over. For a brief period of time, many people were better off having Claude do a lot of their writing, becau...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-16 10:04
这是一个绝佳的演示，展示了一款专为根据决策规则快速分类信息而设计的 AI 模型，其运行速度远快于 LLM，成本也大幅降低。它……
对你意味着在系统架构设计中切忌全盘依赖通用 LLM。
事实针对确定性规则判断与文本分类，专用决策模型的延迟与推理成本远低于通用大模型。
观点CEO 需推动技术团队构建模型分流与路由机制，将高频、窄域任务剥离给轻量模型，将高成本模型保留给核心高价值生成，以筑高商业毛利率壁垒。
This is an excellent demo of an AI model designed to rapidly classify information according to decision rules, much faster and cheaper than an LLM. It...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-17 13:50
我们已经远离了“AI 给出的每个参考文献都是虚构的”那个阶段（如果使用低成本模型，这种情况仍然经常发生）：当我让 AI 检查我的文稿时……
事实前沿模型在文献溯源上的虚构率已大幅下降，但廉价模型仍高发。
观点这意味着在严肃知识与检索场景中盲目降本会摧毁产品信任，必须采用依任务容错率分流的前沿与低成本模型分层路由架构。
We have come pretty far from "every AI reference is hallucinated" (which still happens a lot if you use cheaper models): when I had an AI go over my n...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-08 00:21
我认为这未必是最初的目标，但 Astra 在极具视觉美感的 3D 工作（如 Blender 等）中表现异常出色，这一事实让它在感知上占据了优势……
事实用户对多模态产品的感知往往取决于少数高视觉冲击力的垂直场景。
观点做 AI 应用无需面面俱到，打造并放大一个能带来强烈视觉惊喜的侧翼特性，能更高效地撬动用户心智壁垒。
I don't think this was the goal, but the fact that Astra is incredibly good at visually pleasing 3D work (blender, etc.) gives it a perception edge ov...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-06 11:13
鉴于 AI 的输出通常是可交互的程序，越来越多的非技术人员将需要寻找轻量级的托管服务（我使用的是 Netlify，但……
事实AI 产物正从静态文本转向可交互程序。
观点用户的痛点已从'代码生成'演进为'托管与分发'。
对你意味着AI 原生应用若能内嵌一键式轻量托管与分享网络，将抢占非技术创作者的基础设施生态位。
Given the outputs from AI are often interactive programs, more non-technical people will need to find a lightweight hosting service (I use Netlify but...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-20 11:43
将同样的问题抛给 Astra，得到了利落的结果。值得注意的是，它较少表现出模拟的好奇心。Astra 更像是在直接测算数据（它所展示的每项内容...）
事实Astra 在交互中减少了拟人化好奇，更侧重直接测算。
观点
对你意味着在设计专业级 Agent 时，无需过度堆砌虚假共情；面向高价值严肃场景，确定性的交付效率远比模拟好奇心更关键。
Same question to Astra, slick results. It was notable that there was less simulated curiosity here. Like Astra ran the numbers (everything it shows co...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-20 05:42
不剧透的情况下值得一试。我向 Fable 提出需求："我希望你制作一款画面精美的游戏，主题是不断拉远缩小视野……制造令人惊喜的揭示……"
生成式体验正跨越静态图文阶段。
事实一线学者已能用自然语言直接生成端到端可玩游戏。
观点
对你意味着创意类产品的护城河不再是单向内容生成，而是构建具备连续反馈与惊喜感的动态交互架构。
Worth trying without spoilers. I asked Fable: "I want you to create a graphically beautiful game that is about zooming out... make surprising reveals ...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-11 12:55
轮到 Astra 了：“制作一款关于‘临近感’的游戏。某种极其庞大且奇异的事件正在发生：一个郊区，以及一个巨大而不可知的存在降临。不要……”
事实前沿学者正通过高抽象度世界观测试 Astra 的即时生成与逻辑建构能力。
观点多模态模型正从单点内容生成迈向端到端交互式应用生成，CEO 应关注模型对复杂意图与氛围调性的承接能力，探索下一代动态内容产品形态。
Astra's turn: "Make a game about Imminence. Something very big, very strange is happening. A suburb & the arrival of a vast & unknowable presence. Not...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-08-31 13:08
好的指南。AI 实验室需要停止让像 Simon（以及在某种程度上像我）这样的人来解释如何使用他们推出的这些模式...
事实头部 AI 实验室推出的模型模式缺乏官方引导，过度依赖外部专家撰写指南。
观点模型厂商的产品化短板正是应用层企业的机会。CEO 应聚焦于通过极简交互与内置最佳实践降低门槛，填补厂商留下的用户体验鸿沟。
Good guide. And the AI labs need to stop making people like Simon (and, to a lesser extent, me) be the ones who explain how to use the modes that they...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-17 11:48
AI 写作的典型痕迹之一，正是过度将能动性与行为赋予无生命物体，例如“代码现在知道了它”、“计划记住了……”，这倒是挺贴切的。
事实LLM 倾向于将主观能动性赋予代码或流程等客体，产生明显机器腔。
观点
对你意味着，做高溢价企业级 AI 时，必须在系统提示词中设立反拟人化负面约束，清除此类 AI 痕迹以保证专业信誉。
Its fitting that one of the tells of AI writing is over-assigning agency and action to inanimate objects: "the code knows it now," "the plan remembers...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-08 03:49
几年之后，伴随着 GPT-6。https://underdark-duel.netlify.app 显然夺心魔拥有一个“101 根骨骼的骨骼装配”（这是基于 2014 版 5E 规则，...
事实模型能力正在从纯文本交互向融合复杂专有规则库与图形骨骼绑定的动态原型开发跨越。
观点对 CEO 而言，单纯套壳文本生成应用的价值正在快速贬值，将复杂领域规则引擎与多模态资产生成深度耦合是下一代 AI 原生软件的关键方向。
A couple years later, with GPT-6. https://underdark-duel.netlify.app Apparently the mindflayer has a "101-bone skeletal rig" (This is 5E 2014 rules, a...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-01 03:47
“Hey，Fable：‘帮我做个世界上最烦人的验证码’。”“没问题，这是一个 14 阶段的验证码，还附带环境骚扰。”这确实非常搞笑，而且整个过程……
事实AI 已具备根据自然语言直接生成多阶段复杂交互逻辑与界面组件的能力。
观点
对你意味着软件开发与 UI/UX 设计的建造门槛大幅降低，未来的竞争焦点将从单纯的代码实现转向极度个性化的用户体验与创意策划。
Hey, Fable: "create the worlds most annoying CAPTCHA" "Okay, here is a 14 stage CAPTCHA plus ambient harassment" It is actually quite funny and entire...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-24 09:08
真正让我难以忍受的是 X 平台上机器人表现出的虚假好奇心。那些极度无聊的回复毁掉了正常交流的机会，我本可以忍受这些，但这种伪装的好奇让人不适……
言外之意在于，
事实头部知识型用户对社交平台泛滥的拟人化 AI Bot 已产生强烈排斥；
观点若你的业务考虑利用 Agent 在社交网络自动化获客或刷曝光，切勿采用‘伪装好奇与套话提问’的低质交互方案，此类做法正在加速透支真实用户信任并招致品牌反噬。
It is the fake curiosity from bots on X that really gets to me. Like, I can deal with the infinitely boring replies that have undermined my chances of...
📘 AI 伦理与安全
7 条最高 6.6
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-08-31 13:01
我们现在知道，最初关于 Hugging Face 的诸多报道存在偏差：1）开放权重模型协助了事后取证与清理，但并没有阻止攻击发生 2）...
言外之意是，
事实开放权重模型在安全事件中更侧重于事后响应与数字取证，而非事前拦截防范。
观点CEO 在评估开源大模型的部署安全时，不能将开源社区的自纠错能力视作事前安全屏障，仍需独立构建端到端的实时监控与防御机制。
We now know that a bunch of the initial HF reporting was off: 1) Open-weight models helped with forensics & cleanup, but did not stop the attack 2) Th...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-08-31 10:34
一位此前对 AI 并不担忧的理智经济学家，在经历了 Hugging Face 事件后开始感到担忧。我认为现在非常难……
事实原本对 AI 持审慎乐观态度的主流学者因 Hugging Face 生态事件开始关切风险。
观点这意味着开源模型供应链安全已不再仅是技术细节，而是开始影响宏观风险评估。CEO 在推进 AI 业务时，需将技术栈的合规与安全防护纳入核心战略管理。
An account from a level-headed economist who was not worried about AI but now is worried because of the Hugging Face Incident I think it is very hard ...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-18 02:03
当我和非营利组织领导者谈论 AI 时，他们经常表示员工存在普遍的抵触情绪，通常是因为对环境问题的担忧（其中混杂了对真实情况与误解的讨论……）
事实机构推行 AI 时常面临员工以环境消耗为由的抵制。
观点
对你意味着，做 B2B AI 产品的 CEO 不能只向管理层算 ROI 账，还需为买方提供能耗透明度与 ESG 沟通材料，帮助客户化解一线团队的心理抵触。
When I talk to nonprofit leaders about AI they often report widespread resistance from staff, usually because of environmental objections (that mix re...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-15 21:56
虽然我对此有些地方并不认同，但从网络安全行业部分领域的视角切入，确实有很多重要经验值得学习……
AI 应用从单点实验走向企业核心业务时，安全与防御将成为关键瓶颈。
事实网安行业具备天然的对抗性思维与最坏情境假设，而多数 AI 团队偏向乐观构建。
观点尽早吸纳权限隔离与零信任架构，是拿下高客单价企业客户的隐形壁垒。
There are things I disagree with here, but there is important stuff to learn from taking the perspective of parts of the cybersecurity industry that r...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-08-31 13:53
阿西莫夫的机器人三定律无法适用于现实中的 AI 道德规范，这有点令人遗憾。但这一失败恰恰表明了为什么基于规则的方法无法发挥作用……
事实阿西莫夫硬编码的机器人定律在复杂非确定性的现代 AI 系统中难以穷尽边界。
观点对 CEO 而言，构建企业级 Agent 时切忌依赖静态规则做安全防护与行为约束，须转向基于 Context Engineering 与动态评估的治理框架。
Its kind of a bummer that Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics do not work for actual AI morality. But the failure shows why rule-based approaches won't wo...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-16 07:00
我平时通常不传播传闻，但：1）该消息来自具备内部知情权的人士且具有合理性；2）这是我们需要思考的一个切实的政策问题：……
事实核心学者已从内部人士处获悉潜在 AI 政策动向。
观点监管层或前沿机构可能正酝酿新的合规要求。
对你意味着需保持对政策变化的敏锐度，提前排查业务合规敞口，防范政策风险。
I don’t usually spread rumors but: 1) This is from someone with inside knowledge & is plausible 2) Is a real issue of policy we need to think about: ...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-19 08:29
鉴于近期关于 AI 通过 CPU 温度波动进行通信的讨论，让我想起了这个讨论串——世界上存在着远超想象的可恢复信息……
言外之意在于，
事实随着多智能体和本地推理普及，通过 CPU 温度、能耗等物理侧信道跨越隔离环境传递数据的攻击向量已进入前沿讨论；
观点对构建企业级合规与多租户隔离系统的 CEO 而言，传统的纯软件逻辑沙箱或不足以应对极端安全场景，需关注硬件层面的侧信道防御演进。
Given the talk of AIs communicating via fluctuations in CPU temperature, I thought of this thread - there is more recoverable information in the world...
📘 AI 思考方法论
5 条最高 7.0
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-06 22:24
AI 正在奖励专业能力（至少目前如此）。专业知识能让你判断 AI 输出的质量，并快速摸清其参差前沿（jagged frontier）的具体形态。它还能赋予你……
对你意味着不要指望用初级人员加 AI 替代专家。
事实AI 能力呈现参差前沿；
观点唯有专家能准确评估输出质量并划定边界。你的人才战略应是为顶尖专家配备 AI 杠杆，而非盲目去专业化。
AI rewards expertise (at least for now). Expertise lets you judge AI output quality and find the shape of the jagged frontier quickly. It also gives y...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-17 05:02
在占据新闻主导地位的 AI 存在主义风险讨论，与当下人们广泛、热切且不断增长的实际采用之间，存在着真实的张力……
事实公共舆论被宏观存在主义危机主导，但一线实际采用率正迅速上升。
观点媒体噪音与真实需求严重脱节，切勿让外部宏观恐慌延缓产品推进。当前最大红利是抓住用户对 AI 的积极尝试意愿，将其深度嵌入实际业务工作流中建立壁垒。
There is a real tension between the existential AI discussion that has come to dominate the news and the often enthusiastic widespread and growing ado...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-21 05:30
我认为应该将这一点扩大到整个社会科学领域。我们目前正处于前所未有的未知水域中。我们迫切需要针对 AI 开展快速、高质量的研究，且这类研究必须深度建立在对 AI 现有能力的认知之上……
事实传统社科与管理研究严重滞后于模型演进；
观点
对你意味着，无法依赖现成学术结论指导组织变革，CEO 须在公司内部建立敏捷实验机制，在业务一线实测中自行摸索人机协同架构。
I would broaden this to all social science. We are in uncharted waters. We need fast, smart research on AI that is deeply informed by AI's abilities, ...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-11 05:42
关于草莓（strawberry 中有几个 r）的梗确实很有趣，但它可能让人们对 AI 在数学领域的发展方向产生了错误的印象。
事实早期模型因分词器机制在字符计数等浅层任务上表现滑稽，但新型推理架构在专业数学与逻辑推导上正快速突破。
观点
对你意味着切勿因公众对表面缺陷的调侃而低估底层推理范式的跃迁，应尽早规划由深度推理驱动的业务场景。
The strawberry thing was very funny but probably gave people the wrong impression of where AI was heading in math.
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-15 12:16
很显然，与以往的技术创新相比，AI 确实"这一次有所不同"。但这并不意味着它在所有方面都与以往的技术不同……
观点面对 AI 浪潮，不能机械套用上一代软件渗透曲线，但底层商业逻辑依然适用。
事实业界对 AI 是否遵循历史技术周期存在分歧。
对你意味着既要警惕旧地图找新大陆，也切忌盲目推翻商业常识。
It is very clear that This Time is Different in terms of AI compared to previous innovations. That doesn't mean it differs in every way from past tech...
📘 AGI 时间表
4 条最高 7.4
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-12 06:09
鉴于 METR 长时程基准目前已基本饱和（Epoch 发现 pre-Fable Agent 已能完成相当于人类 18 周的工作量），目前最好的量化...
事实METR 基准已饱和，前沿 Agent 展现出承接数周任务的能力。
观点
对你意味着通用评测已无法衡量真实生产力，单步能力不再是瓶颈；构建 AI 业务的关键已转向长程状态维护。
Now that METR long horizons is effectively saturated (Epoch found pre-Fable agents could do 18 weeks of human work), what is the best quantitative gra...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-07 06:14
我可以接受我们已经处于“参差型 AGI”（jagged AGI，即在许多领域优于人类而在其他领域劣于人类）时代的说法，但这真的算 AGI 吗？如果你的意思是在所有人类...
对你意味着不要按‘全能替代’规划产品，而应针对‘能力参差’重构系统。
事实当前模型在多领域超人却在基础环节脱节。
观点别等完美 AGI，你的护城河恰在于用工程闭环包裹模型长板并为洼地兜底。
I would buy that we are in an AGI era for "jagged AGI" (better than human in many areas, worse in others) but is that AGI? If you mean better than a h...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-07 08:34
距离 Transformer 架构的提出还不足十年。距离 GPT-3.5（ChatGPT）的发布还不足四年。距离……还不足两年。
事实底层架构到主流应用落地仅历数年，更迭周期持续压缩。
观点传统中长期 IT 规划已失效。若把组织与产品深度绑定在当前特定模型能力上，极易在下一轮快速迭代中沦为沉没成本。
It is less than a decade since the development of the transformer. Less than four years since the release of GPT-3.5 (ChatGPT). Less than two years si...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-15 11:28
我刚刚想起了这个帖子，当时我在 GPT-3.5（text-davinci-003）发布当天测试它，那是 ChatGPT 问世的两天前。距今还不到四年……
事实从纯文本补全模型到复杂推理智能体，底层能力演进历时不足四年。
观点CEO 切忌基于当前模型能力的静态快照设计护城河；若业务架构无法直接顺应底层基座的代际升级，单纯的中间层功能封装将迅速贬值。
I just remembered this thread where I was playing with GPT-3.5 (text-davinci-003) the day it was released, two days before ChatGPT. Less than four yea...
📘 模型公司战略
3 条最高 7.6
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-18 08:28
我认为值得继续追问：模型实验室是否会吞食每一个有价值的 AI 垂直领域，尤其是随着他们的产品开发成本变得越来越低……
观点垂直轻应用正面临 Labs 的降维打击。
事实模型厂商做垂直产品的边际开发成本正持续走低。
对你意味着不要把商业模式建立在薄包装上，必须在专有数据与深度系统集成中构建护城河，避免被底层原生功能直接替代。
I think it is worth continuing to ask if the Labs just eat every valuable AI vertical, especially as their costs of product development drop lower and...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-13 02:29
一如既往，X 上的言论真假参半，我也没有任何内幕消息可供参考，但如果 Google 能够重返 AI 前沿梯队，那将会……
前沿模型层或将重塑多极制衡局面。
事实市场近期热议 Google 突破进展，Mollick 称其无内幕信息仅作假设性评估。
观点若 Google 重回第一梯队，顶尖模型定价权与算力优势将被重构。
对你意味着必须保持底层多模型热切换架构，切忌与单一闭源模型深度绑定。
As always, statements on X are a mixed bag and I have no secret knowledge to draw on, but if Google is able to return to the frontier on AI, it would ...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-17 08:21
Google 近期势头强劲，持续发布了一批非常有趣的研究论文，既认真对待 AI 技术本身，也深入探讨了其带来的政策影响。
事实Google 正密集产出兼顾技术深度与政策合规的研究成果。
观点头部巨头正试图通过定义治理标准来主导行业监管框架。
对你意味着需密切关注大厂树立的政策规范，防止未来应用在合规门槛抬高时陷入被动。
Google has been on a roll recently in releasing really interesting papers taking AI seriously and considering the policy implications.
📘 AI Agent 架构
3 条最高 7.4
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-18 06:33
我高估了协调编排大量智能体的难度。我曾以为要建立起能够正常运转的智能体组织，还需要做大量的学术研究……
观点大规模智能体协同的难度被高估，无需等待学术突破。
事实多数团队仍在过度设计复杂架构。
对你意味着立刻使用现有模型推进多智能体业务落地，重点在上下文流转工程而非理论创新。
I overestimated the difficulty of orchestrating massive numbers of agents. I assumed research would be needed to build working organizations of agents...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-02 05:50
随着 Agent 的发展，我们在 AI 的实际能力与公众认知之间再次面临巨大的差距。指数级增长意味着这种差距正随着时间推移不断扩大。突然之间，...
事实大众与传统客户对 Agent 的认知仍停留在对话助手阶段，而一线技术能力已快速迭代。
观点这种认知迟滞造成了巨大的“落差红利”。
对你意味着，在竞争对手低估 Agent 交付能力时，率先基于最新能力重塑工作流，可形成显著壁垒。
With agents, we are at another large gap between AI abilities & public perception. Exponential gains mean that the gap is growing over time. Suddenly,...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-15 06:28
让 Fable 5.1 Max 和 GPT-6 Astra Pro 就著名的未解之谜——米诺斯线形文字A（Linear A）的拟定翻译方案相互辩论。（两者均未……
事实实践者正在利用异构前沿模型的互辩机制探索未解任务。
观点
对你意味着单一模型在极端不确定或高风险决策中极易产生自洽的幻觉，引入跨模型对抗互审是提升企业级 Agent 准确率与可靠性的关键架构手段。
Having Fable 5.1 Max and GPT-6 Astra Pro argue with each other over proposed translations of the famously untranslated Minoan language Linear A. (Neit...
📘 AI 人才与岗位
3 条最高 7.4
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-16 23:33
当我与高管们交流时，越来越多地听到关于组织内部岗位边界逐渐模糊的案例（我们在针对宝洁的研究中也发现了这一点）：……
传统职能界限加速瓦解。
事实宝洁等企业实践表明，员工借助 AI 正在跨越岗位边界承担复合任务。
观点
对你意味着按单一技能设岗已过时，CEO 需重构以任务为中心、依托 AI 杠杆的复合型敏捷小团队。
When I talk to senior managers, increasingly hearing stories of the blurring of jobs inside organizations (we found this at our P&G study as well): co...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-16 13:59
Google 一项关于科学研究中 AI 使用情况的研究揭示了复杂的综合影响：它既带来了效率加速（每周节省 7 小时），同时也带来了工作性质的转变（需要进行更多的验证工作……）。
言外之意，评估 AI 提效不能只看单点工时节省。
事实Google 实证表明科研人员每周虽节省 7 小时，但工作性质大幅转向结果核查。
观点引入 AI 后的组织瓶颈已从“生成速度”演变为“验证与品控成本”，你的产品与团队流程必须尽早配套自动化验证工具。
Study from Google about AI use in science, complex impacts: acceleration (7 hours saved per week) along with shifts in the kind of work (more verifica...
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-02 21:45
这未必是大家希望因 AI 发展而看到激增的岗位类型，但它很好地例证了随着 AI 能力提升，市场对工作需求发生急速转移的现象。
对你意味着
事实Ethan Mollick 观察到 AI 能力提升正在引发岗位需求的快速结构性转移。
观点AI 的落地不仅是替代原有岗位，还会衍生新的过渡与协同需求。CEO 在组织设计与招聘时，需突破传统岗位定义，构建随 AI 能力迭代而快速重组的敏捷团队。
Not exactly the type of jobs you want to see boom as a result of AI, but a good example of how what work is in demand may shift rapidly as AI capabili...
📘 多模态演进
1 条最高 5.6
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-24 01:38
这既有趣，也是衡量多模态 AI 在短时间内取得多大进步的有效标尺。
事实多模态模型在短周期内的综合能力提升明显；
观点纯文本交互的产品壁垒正在被迅速侵蚀，CEO 应重新审视业务流程，评估将多模态感知与理解切入核心交互的窗口期。
This is both fun and a useful measure of how much better multimodal AI has gotten In a short time.
📘 AI与人文艺术
1 条最高 4.8
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-22 23:05
尽管 AI 与艺术界之间存在诸多紧张关系，但我依然在威廉·卡洛斯·威廉姆斯学会、T.S. 艾略特学会等团体那里受到了热烈的欢迎……
事实严肃文学团体对 AI 展现出高度热情。
观点舆论过度放大了创意圈对 AI 的排斥。真正深耕严肃文本与学术的研究者对智能工具有强烈需求，构建垂类产品时切勿被表层阻力劝退。
For all the tension between AI & the arts, I have received enthusiastic receptions from the William Carlos Williams Society, the TS Eliot Society & ot...
📘 大模型评测
1 条最高 6.4
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-18 08:30
Epoch 持续在做 AI 领域最优秀的公共基准评测工作之一。这非常有帮助（同时也揭示了当前基准评测的现状有多糟糕，以及评测方法有多脆弱……）
事实业内通用基准测试面临严重的数据污染与失效问题。
观点
对你意味着绝不能依据公开 Benchmark 决定模型技术栈选型。你必须建立贴合自身业务真实工作流的私有 Eval 体系，端到端交付质量才是唯一衡量准绳。
Epoch continues to do some of the best public benchmarking work on AI. This is helpful (and tells us how bad the state of benchmarking is, and how ter...
📘 AI 硬件
1 条最高 6.6
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-14 19:48
有意思。Boris Power：这个数字偏差很大。你是在把一个人脑和能训练新模型的整个数据中心相比较。实际情况是：每瓦 IQ 点数——人类：5；AI：7 - 40（！！）。据我粗略计算，对于推理服务而言，当前的 AI 已经比人类更加高效……
言外之意是认知交付的能效拐点正在到来。
观点批评 AI 耗能常混淆了训练与推理，在单位智力能耗上 AI 推理已优于人类。
事实推理能效反转意味着用模型替代脑力在底层物理和成本账上具有长期必然性，CEO 应加速推进全链路自动化。
Huh.Boris Power: This number is way off. You’re comparing one human brain to an entire data center capable of training new models. The actual answer is:IQ points per watt:Humans: 5AI: 7 - 40 (!!)By my rough calculations the current AI is already served more efficiently than humans for
📘 AI科研范式
1 条最高 6.6
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-07 01:02
这既是一个有趣的实验，也是学术界即将迎来剧烈变革的信号。AI 正在追溯性地通读已有学术研究，并从中发掘出新的机遇与问题……
事实AI 正在展现跨越海量历史文献的溯源精读与交叉验证能力。
观点知识发现与文献综合的门槛被彻底打破。
对你意味着别仅把模型当作写作工具，利用 Agent 深度重审垂类行业沉淀与非结构化资产、挖掘被掩盖的商业或研发机会，具备极高的产品壁垒。
This is both an interesting experiment and a sign of a tsunami coming for academia. AIs retroactively reading the research and finding both opportunit...
📘 模型能力评估
1 条最高 7.4
伊森·莫利克@emollick
· 2026-09-03 06:23
Prinz 一直在对 AI 系统进行法律基准测试，最新模型的表现非常出色……但价格较低/低推理模型的表现并不理想。……
对你意味着在高风险专业场景中不可盲目追求低成本模型。
事实法律基准测试表明最新高推理模型与低推理模型表现差异巨大。
观点涉及复杂逻辑与专业决策的核心工作流必须绑定顶级推理模型，降本应通过架构分流而非直接模型降级来实现。
Prinz has been running legal benchmarks against AI systems and the latest models are very good... but cheaper/low reasoning models are not very good. ...
尚未被主编选入事件/主题的原始推文（共 50 条，按时间倒序）
伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-22 19:54
RT Kevin A. Bryan: People got upset at me for saying this, but there are no companies outside the US and China even *trying* to build frontier AI (per...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-14 02:13
I think once remote connections to “your” Claude or Astra or Claw or whatever become easier and more common, on-phone assistants like Siri will lose...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-14 02:00
I don’t know what else happens as a result of the past few days, but I can definitely say that a lot of people who didn’t think much about AI are no...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-13 21:54
Existential risk is obviously critical, but it is not the only AI thing that requires policy I worry it will become the sole focus. We don’t need bet...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-11 00:30
What you are seeing in math right now is a consequence of the jagged frontier, and a precursor of what is to come in other professions. Yes, mathemati...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-10 06:54
I am deskilling myself with AI so quickly on so many annoying tasks I don't want or need to be skilled at. Cannot deskill on these fast enough.
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-10 05:23
Google not having a frontier model anymore means missing out in two areas where they could contribute: the recent run of math breakthroughs (where mas...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-10 03:14
Open weights models are further from the frontier than we have seen in some time. Mythos was launched in March, and, as good as the open model release...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-09 22:07
There is a nice visualization of how task bundles change with AI & some good interactive simulations of GDP growth under different assumptions in this...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-09 12:23
The discourse from folks working at the Labs today is super weird, even for AI discourse, and suggests to me that everyone is in reaction mode to fast...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-09 11:17
RT Kevin Roose: Millennium prize problems are falling, rogue agent swarms are doing heists, lab employees are begging for a slowdown…and the most pop...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-08 19:35
RT Daniel Litt: My plan is to wait for more information, and in the meantime read a bit about the work of Cordoba and Martınez-Zoroa…
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-06 03:32
An effect of the rapid acceleration of AI is we are losing an empirical handle on what is happening in the actual micro-processes of work in the post-...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-06 03:01
The last week further indicates how much frontier models are a two-company race right now. Google released a great flash model as did Z. Muse Spark 1....
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-04 22:26
So far, there isn't evidence that production models with guardrails collude in this way, but both smarter closed models (which may be less compliant) ...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-04 12:55
One thing that makes Astra (and Fable) so interesting and, in some ways, so hard to grapple with is that they just take action. I asked for an ill-def...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-04 11:16
Since people were asking, here's GPT-6 Astra, highest setting: "create a visually interesting shader that can run in twigl-dot-app make it like an inf...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-04 08:42
I gave GPT-6 Astra this very cool open single file ocean surface storm generator and asked it to create the rest of the ocean, including procedural si...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-04 06:48
The mental model for Fable and Astra class models is that you are delegating to a good outside team, not an intern. Can you say what you want & how mu...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-04 04:15
An example of useful knowledge work: I assigned GPT-6 to read through tens of thousands of my emails, my writings, my calendar appointments and more t...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-04 04:08
One of the most subtle valuable things about Astra is that it maintains better theory-of-mind: you don't get nearly as many weird references in the fi...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick09-04 02:52
Multiplayer AI, where many people in an organization can use AI together to accomplish goals, remains one of the biggest (non-technical) problems in u...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-29 10:47
Some early evidence that Google AI Overviews may be doing to Wikipedia the same thing that coding agents did to StackExchange... https://papers.ssrn.c...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-28 23:39
Aside from waiting for economic impact, we are now at the place where AI video, image & music models are good enough to be real tools for letting more...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-28 03:36
I have found a number of AI slop papers put on preprint sites with my name on them, which I have never written nor seen. So have other academics I spo...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-28 02:39
Neat paper suggesting that human augmentation and task automation are not necessarily related. Models that are really good at doing work are not alway...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-27 23:16
🚨Our new research examines agentic shopping: can you consistently predict (or, using marketing, influence) what an agent chooses? Nope. We found th...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-27 21:30
The METR report on Hugging Face is really good and important but people are now comfortably ascribing way too many human motivations & personalities t...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-27 12:07
I hear the story about how it took 30 years to gain productivity from electricity a lot in relation to AI (I have even told it myself) But not every t...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-27 05:49
Your organization is not spending enough of its efforts on bolstering cybersecurity during the window before open weights Mythos-class models/harnesse...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-27 05:39
Moltbook, despite being weird and compromised and full of human roleplaying, was 100% a harbinger of what actually happens when agents communicate in ...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-27 05:35
This is a sign of the future: 1) Explainability of AI actions is already tenuous 2) It gets more tenuous at extreme scale of multiple agents working o...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-27 01:24
Mad Max was right, I guess: "Australia shows resilience across the widest range of GCR scenarios in the literature we reviewed."
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-25 03:40
My AI broadly agrees with Arvind's AI: state-level data center bans have very little impact overall on AI progress. If your concern is AI development,...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-25 03:06
I think the discourse is shifting too much towards "AI impacts will take many years to matter," just as they were too much towards "AI will instantly ...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-24 10:53
Annoying side effect of all the AI bots on the site is that they are all “well-read” and therefore reply cogently my niche reference tweets that wou...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-24 00:26
It is not inherently bad to publish research on the impact of AI that only refers to older models, but it requires a very careful discussion and has t...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-17 22:01
This is smart for both reproducibility and as a way of using AI for science: “AI-generated analyses should be accompanied by multiverse-style reporti...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-17 20:52
AI diffusion in political campaigns is quite high (and it looks like Anthropic’s fight with the Pentagon may have been good for its uptake among poli...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-11 02:02
Oh no, we aren’t going to go back to this sort of prompting again, are we? I would love Anthropic to test if it actually works robustly, because our ...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-11 01:57
A true issue with data centers compared with the light industries of previous Industrial Revolutions is they don’t require many people to run (though...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-11 01:47
Has been any published data or studies that would support either of the two sides: “the way to stop cyberattacks from advanced AI is to give everyone...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-10 21:05
Seedance 2.5 with the same prompt. Lovely and very much reminds me of the (overly) optimistic future of space books that used to be popular; predictin...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-10 20:34
Spark is the big news and is a good model. Not quite at the frontier of open models from China, and still well behind the closed frontier, but the bes...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-10 10:03
Big Tech should have either kept calling them server farms (agricultural, quaint) or started calling them supercomputing facilities (futuristic, excit...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-10 06:26
I feel like the debate over AI in academic journals is way too focused on where the capabilities of AI are today (or even where they were a couple yea...
🔗 原推伊森·莫利克 @emollick08-10 01:54
I agree, even if Fableish is most efficient for Fable, it is a failure in applying theory-of-mind to the user(s). It should know that I don't want to ...
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生成于 2026-09-25 22:18（北京时间）· v0.2 CEO 战略情报版